About the public’s health
Covid-19: Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine judged safe for use in UK from next week: Today’s top story.
”The first doses are already on their way to the UK, with 800,000 due in the coming days, Pfizer said.
Health Secretary Matt Hancock said the NHS will contact people about jabs.
Elderly people in care homes and care home staff have been placed top of the priority list, followed by over-80s and health and care staff.
But because hospitals already have the facilities to store the vaccine at -70C, as required, the very first vaccinations are likely to take place there - for care home staff, NHS staff and patients - so none of the vaccine is wasted.”
Phased Allocation of COVID-19 Vaccines: The CDC recommends that the first recipients of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine are health care personnel and long term care facility residents. This document gives the rationale for the decision and who is next to receive the vaccine.
As an aside, when you first search for this information, you will find pages of media reporting on this decision. It takes some work to get the original document. Perhaps there is a role for search engines to list original documents at the top and reporting after (instead of by popularity of clicks).
CDC says 2-week coronavirus quarantines can be cut to 10 or 7 days: “The move reflects the agency’s recognition that the two-week quarantine rule is onerous for many people and that most of the public health benefit from quarantining people exposed to the virus can be gained with a more flexible approach.
The CDC acknowledges that this new guidance involves a trade-off. The existing 14-day recommendation reflects the ability of the virus to incubate for a long period before symptoms appear. But lack of compliance — for example, among people who are reluctant to talk to contact tracers because they fear they or their friends or family members could lose a job or two weeks of income — can undermine the public health benefit from that standard.”
First shipments of Pfizer vaccine to be delivered December 15: “The first shipments of Pfizer's coronavirus vaccine will be delivered on December 15, according to an Operation Warp Speed document obtained by CNN on Tuesday.
The document, provided to governors ahead of a call with the Vice President Monday, also estimated the first shipment of Moderna's vaccine will be delivered on December 22.
Those distribution dates are contingent upon a decision by the US Food and Drug Administration to authorize each vaccine for emergency use. Pfizer submitted an application to the FDA on November 20, and Moderna submitted an application on November 30.”
A related article gives a really good timeline over the next year of the approval and rollout processes.
Decline in SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies After Mild Infection Among Frontline Health Care Personnel in a Multistate Hospital Network — 12 States, April–August 2020: “Among 156 frontline health care personnel who had positive SARS-CoV-2 antibody test results in spring 2020, 94% experienced a decline at repeat testing approximately 60 days later, and 28% seroreverted to below the threshold of positivity. Participants with higher initial antibody responses were more likely to have antibodies detected at the follow-up test than were those who had a lower initial antibody response.
What are the implications for public health practice?
SARS-CoV-2 antibodies decline over weeks following acute infection. Negative SARS-CoV-2 serologic results do not exclude previous infection, which has significant impacts on how serologic studies are interpreted.”
Cancer patients may shed viable COVID-19 virus for 2 months: “A New England Journal of Medicine study yesterday of cancer patients with COVID-19 demonstrated viral RNA shedding for up to 78 days and live virus for up to 61 days, suggesting extended infectiousness in patients whose immune system is suppressed.”
COVID-19 Susceptibility in Bronchial Asthma: The results of this research are not what you might think.
”No significant impact of antileukotrienes, inhaled corticosteroids, and long-acting beta-blockers use was revealed on COVID-19 positivity proportions. Multiple logistic regression analysis adjusted for sex, age, smoking, and comorbidity revealed a negative association of asthma with the likelihood of being positive for COVID-19 [emphasis added] (odds ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.58-0.87; P = .001).”
Trump Covid vaccine czar says side effects ‘significantly noticeable’ in 10% to 15% of recipients: “President Trump’s coronavirus vaccine czar said Pfizer’s and Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccines are safe, with only 10% to 15% of volunteers reporting ‘significantly noticeable’ side effects [redness and pain at the injection site as well as fever, chills, muscle aches and headaches].
The side effects can last up to a day and a half, said Dr. Moncef Slaoui, who is leading the Trump administration’s Covid-19 vaccine program Operation Warp Speed.”
Leaked documents reveal China's mishandling of the early stages of Covid-19: A really interesting investigative report from CNN. The problem starts here and then “goes downhill”:
”In a report marked ‘internal document, please keep confidential,’ local health authorities in the province of Hubei, where the virus was first detected, list a total of 5,918 newly detected cases on February 10, more than double the official public number of confirmed cases, breaking down the total into a variety of subcategories. This larger figure was never fully revealed at that time, as China's accounting system seemed, in the tumult of the early weeks of the pandemic, to downplay the severity of the outbreak.”
About pharma
The $38B pie: Pfizer, Moderna COVID-19 vaccines set for lion's share of 2021 sales: “In fact, the top five players are set to divvy up about $38.5 billion in sales, Bernstein analysts figure, with the first-to-market companies reaping more than half of that. Pfizer, which just won U.K. approval Wednesday, is in line for $14.3 billion in COVID-19 vaccine sales next year, followed by $10.9 billion for Moderna, $6.4 billion for AstraZeneca, $3.9 billion for Novavax and $3 billion for Johnson & Johnson, according to the projections.”
About diagnostics
In potential ‘gamechanger,’ blood test may accurately predict Alzheimer’s: “Scientists in Sweden and Britain now believe blood tests can be used to predict Alzheimer’s years before the onset of symptoms.
Writing in the journal Nature Aging, they described how they developed and validated models of individual risk based on the levels of two key proteins in blood samples taken from more than 550 patients with minor cognitive impairments.
The model, based on these two proteins, had an 88 percent success rate in predicting the onset of Alzheimer’s in the same patients over the course of four years.”
About health insurance
Ala. Judge Gives Initial OK To $2.67B BCBS Antitrust Deal: “Citing ‘historic and substantial’ structural reform terms and a massive, $2.67 billion class damage award, a federal judge in Alabama granted preliminary approval late Monday to a settlement of claims that the nation's Blue Cross plans conspired for years to thwart competition nationwide. U. S. District Judge R. David Proctor noted in his memorandum opinion that the agreement in the Northern District of Alabama includes one of the largest class payouts in history, in a case that alleged a long-running health insurance market-control conspiracy affecting tens of millions of insured members.”
UnitedHealth Group Updates Business Outlook Ahead of Investor Conference: “Under the updated outlook, UnitedHealth Group revenues for 2020 are expected to approximate $257 billion, with net earnings to approach $15.90 per share and adjusted net earnings to approach $16.75 per share. Adjusted net earnings exclude from net earnings only the after-tax non-cash amortization expense pertaining to acquisition-related intangible assets.
UnitedHealth Group will also introduce its initial 2021 outlook, which includes revenues of $277 billion to $280 billion, net earnings of $16.90 to $17.40 per share, and adjusted net earnings of $17.75 to $18.25 per share. These figures include approximately $1.80 per share in potential net unfavorable impact to accommodate continuing COVID-19 effects, such as: treatment and testing costs; the residual impact of people deferring care in 2020; and unemployment and other economic-driven factors. Cash flows from operations are expected to range from $20 billion to $21 billion in 2021.”