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HHS to probe ‘misleading’ Medicare Advantage marketing practices: “In recent years, concerns about aggressive and deceptive marketing practices in Medicare Advantage have become more pressing,” the HHS OIG wrote in July. “These concerns have focused on agents and brokers used by Medicare Advantage plans who target and mislead seniors, at times enrolling them in plans without their knowledge or directing them to plans that substantially increase their out-of-pocket costs.”
The study will focus on complaints received by CMS from 2020 to 2024, specifically looking at the actions taken by agents and brokers that led to the complaints and the incentive structures that encouraged brokers to change individuals’ enrollments. The final study is expected to be released in 2026.
In 2023, CMS finalized a rule aimed at addressing issues related to misleading MA marketing by prohibiting ads that lack specific plan details or mislead beneficiaries through imagery and language. 

Oscar Health is latest insurer to cut earnings guidance: Oscar Health is expecting to operate at a loss in 2025 as costs climb in the individual market. 
The company reported preliminary results for the second quarter of 2025 on July 22, expecting a loss from operations of $200 million to $300 million in 2025, according to a company news release. 

State Waivers for Continuous Medicaid Eligibility to End Under CMS Guidance: Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) released guidance notifying states that it does not anticipate approving new state proposals or extending existing approvals for section 1115 waivers with continuous eligibility provisions for children and adults in Medicaid.
Continuous eligibility generally allows individuals to remain enrolled for a specific period even if there are fluctuations in income. The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2023 required all states to implement 12-month continuous eligibility for children beginning on January 1, 2024. States must use Section 1115 waiver authority to extend continuous eligibility to adults (or certain adult subpopulations), as well as to provide multi-year continuous eligibility for children.

An Attack on the Medical Establishment Buried in an 1,800-Page Regulation: The entire article is worth reading, but here is a key portion: Under the new proposal, Medicare would pay 2.5 percent less for every procedure, operation and medical test in 2026, based on data suggesting there have been improvements in “efficiency” over the years. Payments for treatments based only on time, like a consultation with a family physician or neurologist, would not be cut. Such adjustments would be repeated every three years.
The proposal also looks to change the kind of data Medicare should consider instead of the relatively small surveys, noting that new sources of health data from hospitals and electronic billing systems could offer more accurate information.

About pharma

Sanofi to buy respiratory vaccine biotech Vicebio for $1.6B: Sanofi has agreed to acquire Vicebio for up to $1.6 billion, gaining access to the UK biotech's Molecular Clamp technology platform for developing next-generation multivalent vaccines against respiratory pathogens. Under the terms, Sanofi will pay $1.15 billion upfront, with an additional $450 million tied to development and regulatory milestones.

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Trump's 'big, beautiful bill' is projected to add $3.4 trillion to the debt, budget office says: President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill,” which he signed into law this month, will add $3.4 trillion to the U.S. national debt over the next decade, according to a report the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office published Monday.
The report found that the law, which Republicans passed along party lines, will also “increase by 10 million the number of people without health insurance” by 2034.

Patient experience 2025 Results from Press Ganey’s Annual report on this topic:Key patient experience insights for 2025

  • Experience is improving—but not for all. Since 2019, “Likelihood to Recommend” (LTR) scores have risen by +2.8 points in medical practices, +1.7 in ambulatory surgery centers, and +0.5 in emergency departments. Inpatient scores, however, remain down 2.2 points compared to pre-pandemic levels, despite a modest +0.9 rebound year over year.

  • Teamwork is closely linked to trust. Teamwork has become a leading predictor of inpatient experience. Patients are significantly more likely to recommend hospitals when they perceive care teams working in sync.

  • Safety must be seen and felt. When patients report feeling “very safe,” LTR scores soar to 85.3. Without that perception, scores plummet to 34.6.

  • Equity gaps remain—and matter. Disparities by race, age, setting, and admission type persist. Yet hospitals with the least variation across racial and ethnic groups are 2.8x more likely to achieve top-tier patient loyalty.

  • Unplanned admissions create complexity. Patients admitted unexpectedly report 16% lower LTR scores than those with planned stays, highlighting the need for clear communication and coordinated transitions.

  • Experience is one continuous journey. Patients don’t separate digital, clinical, and post-care touchpoints. Aligning patient, consumer, safety, and employee strategies is key to delivering seamless, human-centered care. 
      

About health insurance/insurers

Surprise Medical Bills Were Supposed To Be a Thing of the Past. Surprise — They’re Not. many good examples and explanations about how the system is not working as expected.

About hospitals and healthcare systems

Are Hospital Acquisitions of Physician Practices Anticompetitive?: Focusing on childbirths, the most ubiquitous admission among the privately insured, we find that, on average, these mergers led to price increases for hospitals and physicians of 3.3% and 15.1%, respectively, with no discernible effects on quality measures. Using demand estimation to characterize substitution patterns for both physicians and hospitals, we construct tests that demonstrate price increases are larger among transactions with greater scope for foreclosure and recapture. 

MEDICARE TO SPEED UP CLAWBACK OF $7.8B FROM HOSPITALS: The Trump administration plans to claw back $7.8 billion in Medicare payments to hospitals a decade sooner than originally proposed, potentially sparking another legal challenge from the hospital industry. CMS also intends to send surveys to hospitals asking what their drug costs are, which could set the stage for the Trump administration to attempt to cut hospital drug payments again.

24 large health systems growing bigger FYI

About pharma

Health Cuts Would Result in Fewer Drugs for Americans, Budget Office Reports: Funding cuts to the National Institutes of Health and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration could sharply reduce the number of new drugs available to Americans in the coming decades, according to an analysis released on Friday by the Congressional Budget Office.
The Trump administration has proposed shrinking the budget of the N.I.H., the world’s premier funder of medical research, by $18 billion, or nearly 40 percent. But even a 10 percent reduction would prevent roughly 30 additional drugs from coming to market in the next three decades, the budget office said. 

About healthcare personnel

Independent Physician Practices Struggle for Survival as Value-Based Care Pressures Mount, Black Book Q2 Survey Finds: As the U.S. healthcare system accelerates toward value-based care (VBC) models and consolidation surges in 2025, independent physician practices are fighting for survival. New data from a Q2 Black Book Research poll of 496 practices reveals that 70% do not expect to maintain autonomy beyond the next 18 months without major changes to their operational strategies, partnerships, or financial management.
Comment: The article also provides a good summary of what these groups are doing to try to stay independent.

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RFK Jr. Wants to Change a Program That Stopped Vaccine Makers From Leaving the U.S. Market. They Could Flee Again. READ THIS ARTICLE! It explains a lot about the illogical reasoning and self-interest of the HHS secretary.

About health insurance/insurers

Employers face 35% surge in $1M medical stop-loss claims: Self-insured plans were about 4.3 times as likely to receive $1 million claims in 2024 than in 2013, according to Tokio Marine HCC's latest annual stop-loss market report.
The Houston-based stop-loss carrier does not publish the underlying $1 million claim frequency counts, but a broker revealed in 2022 that Tokio Marine HCC reported seeing about 20 $1 million stop-loss claims per 1 million employees. That means it's now seeing a frequency of more than 80 $1 million claims per 1 million employees per year, or about one $1 million claim per 12,500 employees.

Projected Health System and Economic Impacts of 2025 Medicaid Policy Proposals A really good summary of this issue. For example: CBO projections suggest 7.6 million individuals in the US would become uninsured by 2034 due to Medicaid policy changes. This is estimated to result in approximately 1484 excess deaths, 94 802 preventable hospitalizations, 1.6 million people delaying care due to cost, and 1.9 million cases of medication nonadherence annually by 2034.

Why 22 million people may see a ‘sharp’ increase in health insurance premiums in 2026: KEY POINTS

  • The so-called “big beautiful bill” that President Donald Trump signed on July 4 cut taxes for some households.

  • However, the law didn’t extend a tax break that has lowered health insurance premiums for millions of Affordable Care Act enrollees in recent years.

  • The tax break is scheduled to end after 2025, which is expected to raise premiums by an average of 75% and cause about 4 million people to lose health insurance.

Judge dismisses Humana’s case over downgraded Medicare Advantage ratings: A federal judge on Friday tossed out a lawsuit from Humana that attempted to reinstate higher quality ratings to its 2025 Medicare Advantage plans.
The ruling jeopardizes billions of dollars in taxpayer-funded bonuses that Humana gets from the government’s star ratings program. However, Humana said it is considering appealing or refiling the lawsuit, which was dismissed on administrative grounds. 

Key Facts About Medicare Part D Enrollment, Premiums, and Cost Sharing in 2025 A great, current summary of this program.

Survey on health & benefit strategies for 2026 A really good summary of Mercer’s predictions for the coming year. For example: With cost growth accelerating, this year more employers say they are likely to make plan design changes that would shift cost to employees.

About the public’s health

Most US pregnant women, parents of young kids don't plan to accept all recommended kids' vaccines: Only 35% to 40% of US pregnant women and parents of young children say they intend to fully vaccinate their child, per survey results from researchers at Emory University and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).
For the two surveys, published as a research letter this week in JAMA Network Open, the investigators recruited 174 pregnant women and 1,765 parents from a nationally representative panel in April 2024 to answer questions about their intent to have their child receive all recommended vaccines by 18 months. 

About healthcare IT

Public Perception of Physicians Who Use Artificial Intelligence:In line with prior research, our results indicate that the public has certain reservations about the integration of AI in health care. While the present effect sizes are relatively small, in particular regarding AI use for administrative purposes, they may be highly relevant as trust in health care practitioners is closely linked to subjective treatment outcomes. Potential reasons for existing skepticism may include concerns that physicians rely too much on AI and that the use of AI could reduce patient-physician interactions as well as concerns about data protection and rising health care costs.6 From the physician’s perspective it thus may be important to transparently communicate the rationale for using AI and to emphasize its potential benefits for the patient. 

About healthcare personnel

Trends in Physician Exit From Fee-for-Service Medicare: Over time, physician exit from traditional Medicare has increased. This result is consistent with earlier findings, but exits remained high even after the pandemic, which likely accelerated some physicians’ exit. The findings may reflect multiple factors, including the greater burden of new communication methods (eg, portal messages) and demands for clinical documentation. More rapid growth in exit among small practices likely contributes to consolidated physician markets, given that new physicians increasingly work for large practices. Decreased fees may also play a role but cannot explain the 2014 to 2016 stabilization in exit rates. Variation in exit rates by specialty suggests that concern about inadequate PCP supply may be warranted but requires investigation. 

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About health insurance/insurers

10 states where people spend the most, least on health insurance FYI

Healthcare billing fraud: 10 recent cases FYI. Note these cases are federal and do not involve private companies.

The insurers gaining, losing individual market members FYI

Elevance Health cuts 2025 earnings guidance: Elevance Health is the latest insurer to cut its 2025 earnings guidance, citing elevated costs in the individual market and Medicaid. 
The company reported its second-quarter earnings July 17. Elevance Health earned  $2.4 billion in operating income in the second quarter, down from $2.8 million in the second quarter of 2024. 
Elevance Health cut its earnings guidance to $30 per share, down from its previous estimate of $34.15 to $34.85. 

About hospitals and healthcare systems

Buying across borders: 5 systems acquiring hospitals in a new statFYI

Trump’s Medicare agency to speed up clawback of $7.8 billion in hospital drug payments (Regarding the 340B Program): The Trump administration plans to claw back $7.8 billion in Medicare payments to hospitals a decade sooner than originally proposed, potentially sparking another legal challenge from the hospital industry.
President Trump’s Medicare agency also intends to send surveys to hospitals asking what their drug costs are, which could set the stage for the Trump administration to attempt to cut hospital drug payments again. 

About pharma

Abbott falls on outlook cut, sees $200 million tariff impact: Abbott Laboratories announced full-year guidance that was down from its earlier expectations, which the North Chicago-based company said were formed before tariffs were announced.
Abbott’s shares fell as much as 8% this morning. Its shares had gained 16% this year, through yesterday's close.
Chief Executive Officer Robert Ford said on a call with analysts that the cost of tariffs will “be just under $200 million,” this year. The company said last quarter that it had considered raising its earnings guidance before tariffs were announced.  

About healthcare IT

Healthcare data breaches jump 20% in 2025: Report: The healthcare sector reported 283 data breaches in the first half of 2025, up from 236 during the same period in 2024, according to a July 16 report from the Identity Theft Resource Center.

About health technology

23andMe is out of bankruptcy. You should still delete your DNA. Opinion from The Washington Post: Nearly 2 million people protected their privacy by deleting their DNA from 23andMe after it declared bankruptcy in March. Now it’s back with the same person in charge — and I still don’t trust it.
Nor do the attorneys general of California, North Carolina, Maryland and Connecticut, who each told me they still recommend people delete their accounts…
Here’s why: Bankruptcy made 23andMe the poster child for America’s lax privacy protections — and it hasn’t substantially changed its ways. As of this week, genetic data from the more than 10 million remaining 23andMe customers has been formally sold to an organization called TTAM Research Institute for $305 million. That nonprofit is run by the person who co-founded and ran 23andMe, Anne Wojcicki.

About healthcare finance

Waters to acquire BD flow cytometry business in a deal valued at $17.5 billion: Instrument maker will move further into biology in a merger with Becton, Dickinson’s biosciences unit. 

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Federal judge reverses rule that would have removed medical debt from credit reports: A federal judge in Texas removed a Biden-era finalized rule by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau that would have removed medical debt from credit reports.
U.S. District Court Judge Sean Jordan of Texas’s Eastern District, who was appointed by President Donald Trump, found on Friday that the rule exceeded the CFPB ‘s authority. Jordan said that the CFPB is not permitted to remove medical debt from credit reports according to the Fair Credit Reporting Act, which protects information collected by consumer reporting agencies. 

12 recent healthcare industry lawsuits, settlements FYI

About health insurance/insurers

Senator introduces bill to reverse Medicaid cuts he voted for: Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., has introduced legislation to roll back some of the Medicaid changes that he had voted for in the recently signed One Big Beautiful Bill Act. 

How the $1T Medicaid cuts law is also a $500B Medicare cuts law: Because Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” is projected to balloon the federal budget deficit by $3.4 trillion over 10 years, it triggered automatic spending cuts under the Statutory Pay-As-You-Go Act of 2010, known as the PAYGO Act. The White House Office of Management and Budget must find $340 billion a year in spending reductions…
The PAYGO Act caps Medicare cuts at 4% of program spending. At a time when providers say reimbursements already aren’t keeping pace with rising costs, even a few percentage points shaved off Medicare rates — atop likely Medicaid payment cuts — could be painful.
It’s possible these Medicare cuts never come to fruition, however. Congress has the authority to waive PAYGO and has done so for statutes such as Trump’s Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 and President Joe Biden’s American Rescue Plan Act of 2021…
But waiving PAYGO would require 60 vote in the Senate, so the GOP would need Democrats to go along. Republican leaders also could face resistance from the conservative lawmakers who nearly derailed the bill over fiscal concerns.

UnitedHealth quietly sold assets to improve margins: Bloomberg: UnitedHealth Group discretely sold stakes in some of its business units to private equity firms near the end of 2024 in an effort to extend its long-running profit streak despite mounting internal cost pressures, Bloomberg reported July 15.
According to the report, the deals included selling a controlling stake in Epic Hearing Healthcare to Warburg Pincus and finalized a deal involving a senior fitness program with KKR & Co. In total, UnitedHealth saw an additional $3.3 billion in profit stemming from asset sales by the end of the fourth quarter. 

About hospitals and healthcare systems

Navigating the Uncertainty of Federal Policy 2025: Examining the Government & Regulatory Impact on Healthcare Delivery Organizations: See the Executive Summary on page 2.

About pharma

President Trump: Pharma tariff is coming: Trump… said he would "probably" announce tariffs on pharmaceutical drugs at the end of the month, and that levies on semiconductors could come soon as well.
The president said he would start at a lower tariff rate and give pharma companies a year to build domestic factories before they face higher import tax rates. Trump said computer chips would face a similar style of tariffs.
As the EU is negotiating a deal with the US, the pharmaceutical sector is eagerly watching every move that might impact the industry in the bloc, as more than one-third of EU pharma exports are sent to the US.

 Chinese biotech behind Merck & Co.'s PD-1/VEGF play sold for $951M: As interest ramps up in the PD-1/VEGF bispecific space, Sino Biopharmaceutical is taking full control of LaNova Medicines — the Chinese biotech behind a $3.3-billion cancer drug deal with Merck & Co. last year — by acquiring the remaining shares it doesn't already own in a deal worth up to $951 million. 

About healthcare IT

Many in U.S. Consider AI-Generated Health Information Useful and Reliable:
The Annenberg Public Policy Center’s April 2025 health survey finds that:

  • Most (79%) U.S. adults say they’re likely to look online for the answer to a question about a health symptom or condition.

  • Three-quarters (75%) of people who search online say that AI-generated responses provide them “sometimes” (45%) or “often or more” (31%) with the answer they need.

  • Most Americans (63%) think AI-generated health information is somewhat (55%) or very (8%) reliable.

  • Nearly half (49%) are not comfortable with health care providers using AI tools rather than their experience alone when making decisions about their care. 

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About Covid-19

COVID cases likely rising in half of states, CDC estimates: Cases of COVID-19 are now likely growing in 25 states, according to estimates published by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Friday, as this year's summer wave of the virus appears to be getting underway.
The agency's modeling suggests that the uptick is in "many" Southeast, Southern and West Coast states, the CDC said in its weekly update. 

About health insurance/insurers

CMS pitches 3.6% bump in Medicare physician pay rule: 8 things to know A really good summary of the announcement I cited in yesterday’s blog.

House GOP eyes deeper Medicaid, Medicare cuts in next budget bill: House Republicans have already begun work on a follow-up budget bill that seeks deeper cuts to Medicaid and new spending reductions in Medicare, Bloomberg reported July 14….
House Budget Committee Chairman Jodey Arrington, R-Texas, told Bloomberg he sees the legislation — coming this fall — as an opportunity to secure Medicare spending cuts he unsuccessfully sought in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which was signed into law on July 4. 

About pharma

Merck & Co. moves once-monthly HIV prevention pill into Phase III: Merck & Co. is diving into the next generation of HIV prevention with a once-a-month pill, entering late-stage trials just weeks after Gilead Sciences' long-acting injection won FDA approval. The move potentially sets up a nascent rivalry between different dosing approaches, with Merck's contender, MK-8527, potentially offering an alternative, non-injectable option for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). 

About the public’s health

Obesity-Related Cancer Deaths More Than Triple In U.S.: Cancer deaths linked to obesity more than tripled in the U.S. during the past two decades, a new study says.
Deaths linked to the 13 types of obesity-related cancer rose to 13.5 deaths per million from 3.7 deaths per million between 1999 and 2020, researchers reported Sunday at the Endocrine Society’s annual meeting in San Francisco.

What causes obesity? A major new study is upending common wisdom: “Our analyses suggest that increased energy intake has been roughly 10 times more important than declining total energy expenditure in driving the modern obesity crisis,” the study authors write.
In other words, we’re eating too much. We may also be eating the wrong kinds of foods, the study also suggests. In a sub-analysis of the diets of some of the groups from both highly and less-developed nations, the scientists found a strong correlation between the percentage of daily diets that consists of “ultra-processed foods” — which the study’s authors define as “industrial formulations of five or more ingredients” — and higher body-fat percentages.

Today's News and Commentary

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About Covid-19

Most COVID-19 Drugs Fall Short, Meta-Analysis Confirms: A systematic review and network meta-analysis published in The BMJ evaluated 40 treatments across 187 randomized trials involving more than 166,000 participants. Only two antivirals, nirmatrelvir-ritonavir (Paxlovid) and remdesivir, were found to moderately reduce the risk for hospitalization.
No treatment reduced mortality, although some treatments were associated with a shorter duration of symptoms. These findings are expected to guide future WHOtreatment recommendations. 

About health insurance/insurers

Employers pull back on high-deductible health plans, eye PBMs as costs mount: The high cost of employee health benefits has employers looking for new pharmacy benefit manager options and backing off high-deductible health plans that lower-wage workers struggle to cover, according to Gallagher's 2025 U.S. Benefits Benchmarks Report.
The report from the Rolling Meadows-based insurance brokerage also points to a trend of employers adopting a more holistic approach to benefits that encompasses physical, emotional, career and financial health. It is based on Gallagher's 2025 U.S. Benefits Strategy & Benchmarking Survey of more than 4,000 organizations across the U.S.
The survey found that only 12% of employers responding are improving their pharmacy benefits, but 32% are carving out pharmacy benefits to a PBM — a 13-point increase from 2024.

Potential Factors Associated With Commercial-to-Medicare Relative Prices at the Substate Level: This cross-sectional study of 1.2 billion claim lines in 2020 and 1.5 billion claim lines from June 2020 through May 2023 found that commercial in-network allowed amounts were 246% of Medicare rates for hospital services and 124% for professional services, with substantial geographic variation. Higher commercial-to-Medicare price ratios were associated with high hospital market concentration, lower insurer concentration levels, presence of a major teaching hospital, and higher share of the population who were uninsured. 

About hospitals and healthcare systems

Genesis HealthCare files for Chapter 11: Genesis, which operates about 175 nursing facilities in 18 states and employs more than 27,000 workers… In filing its case, Genesis said it has roughly $708.5 million in secured liabilities and more than $1.5 billion in unsecured debt, according to Bloomberg.   

Obstetric Care Access Declined In Rural And Urban Hospitals Across US States, 2010–22: We identified obstetric service status for every rural and urban short-term acute care hospital in every US state. During 2010–22, seven states had at least 25 percent of hospitals close their obstetric service lines. By 2022, more than two-thirds of rural hospitals in eight states were without obstetric services.
Comment: This situation will get worse when the new tax bill is fully implemented.

About pharma

Walgreens shareholders approve private-equity buyout: Walgreens Boots Alliance shareholders gave the thumbs up to the private-equity buyout by Sycamore Partners, with about 96% of votes cast approving the sale, the Deerfield-based retail pharmacy giant announced this morning. 

About the public’s health

Cities with the most, fewest adults in poor health FYI: Three cities in Texas have the highest percentage of adults with fair or poor health, according to WalletHub’s annual ranking, published July 7.
To determine the ranking, WalletHub compared 182 cities across four dimensions — work stress, financial stress, family stress, and health and safety stress — and evaluated those dimensions using 39 weighted metrics. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the highest levels of stress.  

About healthcare personnel

29 physician specialties gaining, losing ground on pay FYI 

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What Health Care Provisions of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act Mean for States Excellent summary 

About health insurance/insurers

Centene faces potential junk rating: S&P Global Ratings is considering downgrading Centene’s credit rating to junk status.
In a July 1 news release, the agency cited Centene withdrawing its 2025 earnings guidance as the driver for the potential downgrade. Centene’s Medicare, Medicaid and ACA businesses are underperforming relative to their target margins, according to S&P.

10 states where people spend the most, least on health insurance FYI

About hospitals and healthcare systems

Days cash on hand at 40 health systems FYI. More downs than ups.

About pharma

The looming ‘patent cliff’ facing Big Pharma: The pharmaceutical industry is facing some of its steepest patent cliffs to date. Drugs worth about $180bn of revenue a year are going off patent in 2027 and 2028, according to research firm Evaluate Pharma, representing almost 12 per cent of the global market.
Comment: An excellent article on the patent cliff issue.

AbbVie inks another billion-dollar oncology drug deal: AbbVie has entered into a $1 billion licensing agreement with IGI Therapeutics SA, for IGI's lead investigational drug for oncology and autoimmune diseases.

Merck & Co. to buy Verona for $10B, gaining fast-launching COPD therapy: Merck & Co. agreed to buy Verona Pharma for $107 per American depository share, or approximately $10 billion, as it continues to seek ways to plug the looming revenue hole from upcoming patent expiration on its key cancer drug Keytruda (pembrolizumab). The deal — announced Wednesday — gives Merck the chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) medicine Ohtuvayre (ensifentrine), which since FDA approval last year has gotten off to a strong launch. 

Budesonide-Formoterol Metered-Dose Inhaler vs Fluticasone-Salmeterol Dry-Powder Inhaler: In this primary self-controlled case series and secondary matched cohort study of 260 268 and 258 577 US veterans, respectively, transition to fluticasone-salmeterol dry-powder inhaler therapy under a national formulary change was associated with higher rates of prednisone use and increased all-cause and respiratory-related emergency department visits and hospitalizations.
Comment: Cheaper does not always translate to lower total cost.

About the public’s health

Prediabetes in US Adolescents: In 2023, an estimated 8.4 million adolescents aged 12-17 years, or 32.7% of the US adolescent population, had prediabetes. 

FDA grants full approval to Moderna’s Covid vaccine for children but limits eligibility: Moderna’s Covid-19 vaccine for children has been given full Food and Drug Administration approval, making it the first Covid vaccine for kids in the United States that will no longer be administered under an emergency use authorization. 
But the approval comes with a proviso: It is for use in children who have at least one medical condition that puts them at increased risk of severe illness from Covid…

About healthcare personnel

29 physician specialties ranked by pay FYI. No surprises—surgical specialties at the top, cognitive at the bottom. 

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OECD Health Statistics An excellent periodic source for international healthcare data comparisons.

HHS backtracks on pledge to disclose new vaccine advisers’ conflicts of interest: The Department of Health and Human Services is sitting on information about new vaccine advisers’ conflicts of interest, and seemingly backtracking on its vow to make key disclosure documents public. 
Agency officials previously said they would release ethics forms for seven new members of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices.  

Kennedy abruptly cancels preventive care committee meeting: Health secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has abruptly canceled a meeting of a key expert panel that evaluates the nation’s preventive care recommendations, according to an email viewed by STAT. The email did not cite a reason. 
The cancellation of the Thursday meeting of the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force comes just a couple of weeks after the U.S. Supreme Court affirmed the secretary’s authority over the panel, potentially paving the way for Kennedy to reject certain recommendations or reconstitute it. 

About health insurance/insurers

Medicare QIOs Want to Maximize Their Digital Potential: Using CMS’ own guidance, the QIN-QIO community health activities of Civitas members over just the final two years (2022-24) of the most recent 5-year contract cycle generated $4.7 billion in Medicare savings across a multi-regional block of 11 states, primarily by reducing preventable ED visits, hospitalizations and 30-day hospital readmission rates. 

About pharma

Trump floats 200 percent tariffs on pharmaceutical imports ‘very soon’: President Trump on Tuesday threatened to impose up to 200 percent tariffs on pharmaceutical products imported into the U.S. “very soon.” 
“If they have to bring the pharmaceuticals into the country, the drugs and other things into the country, they’re going to be tariffed at a very, very high rate, like 200 percent,” Trump said during a Cabinet meeting. 

 Leqembi's price needs to be cut at least 64% to be cost-effective in Japan: analysis: A new analysis suggests that the price of Eisai's Alzheimer's disease therapy Leqembi (lecanemab) needs to come down by at least 64% in Japan to meet cost-effectiveness thresholds. The assessment, published Wednesday, comes from the Center for Outcomes Research and Economic Evaluation for Health (C2H), an expert committee of the Central Social Insurance Medical Council, which is part of Japan's health ministry.
Comment: An interesting international example for evaluating cost-effectiveness of drugs.

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Trump bill's health effects won't be felt until after midterms A good summary of when different provisions start.

How Health Care Remade the U.S. Economy Two takeaways:
1. The healthcare sector is now the nation’s largest employer.
2. Americans now spend more on health care than groceries or housing 

About health insurance/insurers

Megabill hits health care for immigrants, including legal ones, hard: Under current rules, those immigrants — green card holders, refugees, survivors of domestic violence and individuals on work and student visas — can purchase health insurance on the Obamacare marketplace and receive tax credits to offset the cost. Some of them are also eligible for coverage through Medicaid, the state-federal program for low-income people, if they earn incomes below the poverty level, as well as Medicare, the federal program for elderly people. 
But the provisions in the GOP megabill narrow immigrant eligibility for these programs, allowing only green card holders, immigrants from Cuba and Haiti and immigrants from certain Pacific Island countries access to federally funded health care.

The surprise medical bills just keep coming A really good summary of the current status and background of this legislation.

How Healthcare Cuts Stand to Hurt A good explanation with helpful graphics. 

About pharma

New Cancer Drug Approvals: Less Than Half Of Important Clinical Trial Uncertainties Reported By The FDA To Clinicians, 2019–22: During the period 2019–22, the FDA approved fifty-two new cancer drugs. In review documents, FDA reviewers identified a total of 213 clinical trial uncertainties with new cancer drugs, 50 percent of which were considered to be important uncertainties to the FDA’s approval decision. Labels for physicians reported information on 26 percent of all uncertainties and 48 percent of uncertainties that were important to the FDA’s approval decision. Communicating uncertainties about the evidence of drugs in the label is essential for informing physicians about drugs’ safe and effective use.

Big Beautiful Bill narrows CMS drug price negotiation authority: The sweeping One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed into federal law July 4, amended CMS’ drug price negotiations authority that could absolve nearly $5 billion in projected savings, according to the Congressional Budget Office. 
CMS gained the authority to negotiate list prices with drugmakers in 2022, and the first 10 negotiated medication prices will take effect Jan. 1, 2026. To be eligible for negotiations, medications must lack generic or biosimilar competition and be on the market for more than 10 years. 
FDA-designated “orphan drugs” are exempted from the eligibility criteria. These are therapies for diseases or conditions that affect fewer than 200,000 Americans. With the passage of the new law, the exception expanded to include medications for “one or more rare diseases or conditions.”
The Congressional Budget Office predicts this allowance will avert $4.87 billion in federal savings from the Medicare drug price negotiation program.

Today's News and Commentary

About health insurance/insurers

Exchange insurers owe $10.4B in risk-adjustment payments:  Health insurance companies will trade $10.4 billion in exchange risk-adjustment payments this year, the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services announced.
Comment: Up from $10.3B last year. 

About the public’s health

Medical groups sue RFK Jr. over vaccine policy: The plaintiffs include large, influential medical bodies such as the Itasca-based American Academy of Pediatrics, the Infectious Diseases Society of America, the American College of Physicians, the American Public Health Association and the Society for Maternal-Fetal Medicine, challenged Kennedy’s decision on the basis that it was arbitrary and capricious and violated the legal structure Congress set up for vaccine recommendations. An unidentified pregnant woman also joined the suit, filed Monday.

Many U.S. Adults Wouldn't Test for Suspected COVID, Survey Shows: Among the 30% of people who said they would not or might not take a test, 53.6% said they didn't see a reason to test, 30.1% said it would not be helpful to know if they were positive for COVID, and 20.7% said they would not trust test results, the authors noted in a research letter in JAMA Network Open.

Measles cases hit highest level since it was declared eradicated in the U.S. in 2000: This year's measles outbreak is the worst since the disease was declared eliminated in 2000. Halfway through 2025, reported cases have already surpassed 1,274 − the peak for all of 2019.

As women have far fewer babies, the U.S. and the world face unprecedented challenges:This change in decision-making and behavior appears to be accelerating. New research from the United Nations found that the number of children born to the average woman worldwide has reached the lowest point ever recorded. In every country and every culture, women are having fewer than half as many children as they did in the 1960s.
Comment: A really good summary of the issues.

Uterine cancer incidence, mortality to increase substantially by 2050, model shows: Incidence and mortality rates for uterine cancer are projected to rise substantially over the next 3 decades, according to research published in Cancer Epidemiology, Biomarkers & Prevention.
Racial disparities also are expected to become more pronounced, with incidence-based mortality predicted to be nearly three times higher among Black women than white women by 2050. 

Tobacco report shows progress on anti-smoking policies worldwide:Measures linked to falling tobacco use worldwide now reach 6.1 billion people — or 75 percent of the global population, according to a report from the World Health Organization.
The report, issued at the recent World Conference on Tobacco Control in Dublin, found that 2.6 billion people in 79 countries are covered by smoke-free policies in indoor public places.

About healthcare personnel

Healthcare job growth down 37% month over month: Healthcare gained 39,200 jobs in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Though slightly less than the average monthly increase of 43,000 jobs over the previous 12 months, it marks a sharp, 37% downturn from May’s 62,200-job gain. 

Today's News and Commentary

HealthcareInsights.MD will be off July 4 and will resume July 7.

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In other news:

Live updates: House passes GOP megabill and sends it to Trump; Hakeem Jeffries delays final vote with marathon speech 
See, also: House Passes Sweeping Bill to Fulfill President’s Domestic Agenda 

Lucian Leape, Whose Work Spurred Patient Safety in Medicine, Dies at 94: Dr. Leape’s investigations into medical errors planted the seeds for patient safety programs that are in place today across the globe and that have saved thousands of lives. Despite resistance from the medical establishment, he found systemic ways to reduce errors, paving the way for a global standard. Thousands of lives have been saved.

About health insurance/insurers

Enrollment in Dual-Eligible Special Needs Plans and Disenrollment Rates: Question  Is enrollment in Medicare Advantage plans with greater degrees of integration associated with lower plan disenrollment rates?
Findings  In this cross-sectional study of 2.7 million dually eligible Medicare beneficiaries, dually eligible Medicare and Medicaid beneficiaries enrolled in fully integrated dual-eligible special needs plans had substantially lower disenrollment rates compared with beneficiaries enrolled in other Medicare Advantage plan types.
Meaning  The study results suggest that fully integrated plans retained their members at higher rates, which could be a sign of improved care experiences.
 

About hospitals and healthcare systems

Simulating the Overall Hospital Quality Star Ratings With Random Measure Weights: Question  Can a measure of reliable excellence in hospital quality be developed from simulating the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Overall Hospital Quality Star Rating summary score using random measure weights?
Findings  In this cross-sectional study of 2700 US hospitals, 9.0% met the definition of reliable excellence, including 61.8% of 335 5-star rated hospitals, whereas 47.7% of all hospitals achieved excellence in at least 1 simulation.
Meaning  These findings suggest meaningful variation in hospital quality performance even among 5-star hospitals, and the measure of reliable excellence complements the Overall Hospital Quality Star Ratings by distinguishing hospitals likely to provide top-decile quality regardless of measure weights. 

About the public’s health

The U.S. government is failing on vaccine policy. The Vaccine Integrity Project is here to help: Recently, the Department of Health and Human Services floated new standardsfor vaccine approvals, rescinded longstanding Covid-19 vaccine recommendations for healthy children and pregnant women, and fired all 17 members of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s vaccine advisory committee. These actions represent a significant shift in the federal government’s approach to vaccine policy and the safeguarding of the public’s health.
The Vaccine Integrity Project, launched in April by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, anticipated this trajectory and the risks posed to the widely shared goal of protecting people from vaccine-preventable diseases. Its mission is simple and urgent: to ensure that vaccine use in the United States remains grounded in the best available evidence and focused squarely on protecting the public.

Top FDA vaccine official rejected broad use of Covid-19 shots, documents show: The US Food and Drug Administration’s top vaccine official overrode agency experts in May to recommend against the broad use of two Covid-19 vaccines, newly released documents show.
Dr. Vinay Prasad, director of the agency’s Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, said in two memos that he disagreed with reviewers’ conclusions about the vaccines’ safety and about the ongoing threat of the virus that causes Covid-19, particularly for young and healthy people. 

Today's News and Commentary

Read today’s Kaiser Health News [Many articles on the Senate Bill]

In other news:

The best and worst states for healthcare — and why it’s complicated No one comes close to perfect.

About hospitals and healthcare systems

Health system margins still at 1%, drug expenses soar:Data from Strata Decision Technology, which gathers information monthly from more than 1,600 hospitals, found health system operating margins were around 1% for the fifth consecutive month in May while hospital margins grew by less than 1%. Hospitals in the West and Midwest reported slight margin declines while hospitals in the South reported 3.6 percentage points gained in average margins; hospitals in the Northeast reported 1.3 percentage point gains.
Hospital size matters as well. Hospitals with 300-499 beds reported average margin increase of 2.6 percentage points while larger hospitals of 500 beds or more reported a 2.6 percentage point average margin decrease in May. The average margin for hospitals with less than 25 beds dropped 3.3 percentage points. 

Centene stock crashes 40% as enrollments drop and costs surge, 2025 outlook pulled: Centene stock took a major hit as the healthcare company pulled its 2025 earnings outlook, sending shares crashing to their lowest point since 2017. Centene, known for its Medicaid and Affordable Care Act (ACA) coverage, revealed that slower enrollment growth and higher-than-expected patient illness would cut $2.75 per share off its earnings. The update slashed its projected revenue by $1.8 billion, causing widespread analyst downgrades. Centene also announced it would reprice its 2026 marketplace plans to reflect these unexpected costs. This sudden shift has left investors and analysts worried about the future of healthcare stocks in the ACA market.

Today's News and Commentary

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In other news:

Senate passes Trump’s tax bill, sending it to House for final passage: Vice President JD Vance cast the tiebreaking vote for the measure, which extends trillions of dollars in tax cuts from Trump’s first term and implements new campaign promises — such as eliminating income taxes on tips and overtime wages — while spending hundreds of billions of dollars on immigration enforcement and defense.
To offset the cost, the legislation cuts about $1 trillion from Medicaid, the federal health insurance program for low-income individuals and people with disabilities, and other health care programs. It would also make cuts to SNAP, the anti-hunger Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as food stamps. Nearly 12 million people will lose health care coverage if the bill becomes law, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office.

Experts Skeptical of Trump's So-Called 'Gold Standard Science': Federal health agencies are expected to adopt so-called "gold standard science" in line with an executive orderopens in a new tab or window, but many in the research community worry this framework creates yet another avenue for political appointees to control what is deemed legitimate evidence.
Characteristics of gold standard science listed in the order include being reproducible, transparent, communicative of error and uncertainty, accepting of negative results, and without conflicts of interest, among others…
Federal agencies must submit their plans to implement gold standard science by Aug. 22, according to a memo from the president's science advisor, Michael Kratsios, head of the Office of Science and Technology Policy. Senior appointees at each agency, designated by agency heads, are expected to evaluate and correct violations and discipline those who veer from the gold standard science framework.  

About health insurance/insurers

Prior authorization in 2025: What to know A great summary worth reading in its entirety.

 Feds unveil largest healthcare fraud takedown: $14.6B in alleged schemes, 324 charged ICYMI yesterday.

About hospitals and healthcare systems

Best Buy divests home care company it bought for $400M: Best Buy has sold Current Health, a remote patient monitoring company it bought in 2021 for $400 million.
Current Health co-founder Christopher McGhee reacquired the company from the tech retailer, according to a June 24 LinkedIn post. Financial terms of the deal were not disclosed.

About pharma

State PBM regulation hits a SCOTUS roadblock: The Supreme Court declined Monday to consider an appellate court’s 2023 decision overturning portions of an Oklahoma law regulating pharmacy benefit managers, raising questions about the implications for state actions to rein in the companies’ business practices.
The 10th Circuit appeals court ruled that federal laws regulating private employer-sponsored health plans and Medicare’s drug benefit preempt the 2019 state law’s provisions that aimed to bolster independent pharmacies’ bargaining power with PBMs, which help negotiate retail drug prices between drugmakers and payers. Community pharmacies have long panned the middlemen — which are responsible for 80 percent of the market — for steering customers toward pharmacy chains they own.  

About the public’s health

A Canadian City Brings Fluoride Back to Its Drinking Water: Calgary removed fluoride from its water supply in 2011, but residents voted to reverse course after studies linked the move to worse dental health among children.
Comment: So why are some Red States and cities removing safe fluoride levels form the drinking water? 

Today's News and Commentary

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Inside Operation Gold Rush, largest health care fraud bust in U.S. history Among the articles highlights: The two-year investigation, dubbed Operation Gold Rush, uncovered a conspiracy to purchase more than 30 small health care supply companies that were already enrolled with Medicare, officials said. Conspirators then used those companies to submit a flood of claims for urinary catheters, continuous glucose monitors and other supplies that were not medically necessary, law enforcement officials allege.
The numbers were often eye-popping. Beginning in late 2022, the companies collectively submitted fraudulent claims to Medicare for more than 1 billion urinary catheters, officials said. 

About health insurance/insurers

Wasteful and Inappropriate Service Reduction (WISeR) Model From CMS:
The Wasteful and Inappropriate Service Reduction Model (WISeR) will harness enhanced technologies like Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to streamline the review process for certain items and services that are vulnerable to fraud, waste and abuse, helping people with Medicare receive safe and appropriate care and protecting federal taxpayers. The model is voluntary and will run for six performance years from January 1, 2026 to December 31, 2031…
WISeR will aim to:
• Focus health care spending on services that will improve patient well-being
• Apply commercial payer prior authorization processes that may be faster, easier and more accurate
• Increase transparency of existing Medicare coverage policy
• De-incentivize and reduce use of medically unnecessary care
Comment: The prior authorization feature is interesting in light of federal pressure on private plans to scale back or eliminate this process. Also, Medicare beneficiaries’ right to freedom of choice of providers may conflict with these provisions, depending on how these rules are implemented.

Medicare Advantage in the headlines: 10 recent updates  A good summary of recent events.

About hospitals and healthcare systems

Joint Commission cuts standards by 50% in sweeping overhaul: The Joint Commission is transforming its accreditation process by reducing the number of requirements by 50% — from 1,551 to 774 standards — in its most significant rewrite since Medicare was established in 1965…
The redesign, called Accreditation 360: The New Standard, features an updated manual with clearer definitions of CMS conditions of participation and the Joint Commission’s national performance goals, now distilled into 14 critical categories.

UCI Health to open nation’s 1st all-electric acute care hospital: The UCI Health-Irvine hospital is a 144-bed facility expected to open in December, according to a June 26 system news release.
“This building is different from a traditional medical center in that we don’t use any carbon fuels for our normal operations,” Joe Brothman, director of UCI Health General Services, said in the release. “All of the electricity we use is either generated onsite or procured through sustainable sources.”
The facility is powered by solar panels on the roof and uses recycled water. 

760 hospitals at risk of closure, state by state FYI

FYI9 hospital projects worth $1B+ in 2025 FYI

About pharma

Optum Rx removes reauthorization requirements for an additional 60-plus drugs FYI

CVS Caremark selects Wegovy as preferred GLP-1 for commercial formularies: CVS Caremark has selected Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy as the preferred GLP-1 medication for its largest commercial template formularies, effective July 1.
In March, Novo Nordisk launched NovoCare Pharmacy to provide direct-to-patient doses of Wegovy for $499 per month. Eligible self-paying patients can also get the $499-per-month price at their local pharmacy.
The new formulary change is a blow to Eli Lilly, which began selling higher doses of Zepbound, a weight loss drug, for $499 at first fill in late February.  

AbbVie to pay $2.1 billion for immunology drug developer: AbbVie announced this morning it would buy clinical-stage biotech company Capstan Therapeutics for up to $2.1 billion in cash, picking up the company's in vivo CAR-T therapy candidate. 

FDA eliminates barrier to CAR-T accessibility: The FDA will no longer require healthcare facilities be specially certified to administer currently approved CAR-T cell therapies, a move intended to make the potentially curative cancer treatments more accessible to patients. 
The change, announced this week, was made because the FDA determined that the risk evaluation and mitigation strategy (REMS) required of CAR-Ts "is no longer necessary to ensure that the benefits… outweigh their risks."

About the public’s health

Moderna's mRNA-based flu vaccine superior to traditional jab in pivotal study: Moderna said Monday that its investigational seasonal influenza vaccine mRNA-1010 demonstrated superior efficacy to a standard-dose flu shot in adults aged 50 years and older. The results from the Phase III study set up filings not only for the mRNA-based flu vaccine, but also the company's combination influenza/COVID-19 vaccine mRNA-1083.

Food contact articles as source of micro- and nanoplastics: a systematic evidence map: Micro- and nanoplastics (MNPs) in foodstuffs lead to widespread human exposure and are often linked to environmental contamination. However, the role of plastics in food contact articles (FCAs) has received less attention, despite being a known source... We conclude that the normal/intended use of FCAs can lead to the migration of MNPs. Further research is needed to systematically characterize MNP migration related to materials and use. To better protect human health, regulations could mandate MNP migration testing for FCAs. 

Fast-food Intake Among Adults in the United States, August 2021–August 2023:
Data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

  • During August 2021–August 2023, about one-third of adults age 20 and older (32.0%) consumed fast food on a given day.

  • Overall, adults consumed 11.7% of calories from fast food on a given day, and the percentage decreased with age: 15.2% for ages 20–39, 11.9% for 40–59, and 7.6% for 60 and older.

  • Adults with some college education generally consumed more calories from fast food than those with a high school diploma or less or a bachelor’s degree or more.

  • The percentage of daily calories from fast food increased with increasing weight status.

  • The percentage of calories consumed from fast food among adults decreased from 14.1% during 2013–2014 to 11.7% during August
    2021–August 2023. 

About healthcare personnel

Schools of Nursing See Enrollment Increases Across Most Program Levels, Signaling Strong Interest in Nursing Careers: New data released…by the American Association of Colleges of Nursing (AACN) show increases in the student population across most undergraduate and graduate programs at U.S. nursing schools, reversing some recent downward trends. While enrollment increased from 2023 to 2024 in baccalaureate, master’s, and practice doctorates, fewer students entered research-focused doctoral programs (PhD) last year, further challenging efforts to prepare enough researchers, faculty, and leaders to meet workforce needs. Click here to see highlights from AACN’s 2024 Annual Survey. 

About health technology

FDA Authorization of Therapeutic Devices Under the Breakthrough Devices Program: Findings  In this cross-sectional analysis of 75 FDA-authorized breakthrough-designated therapeutic devices from 2016 to 2024, the FDA reviewed 57% of devices within statutory performance timelines. Although 89% underwent premarket clinical testing, nearly half of primary effectiveness end points used surrogate measures and 19% lacked statistical testing; the FDA did not require postmarket studies for 60% of devices, including 7 of 11 devices that did not meet premarket study effectiveness end points.
Meaning  Results of this study suggest that the FDA authorizes most breakthrough-designated devices before statutory target timeframes, but often with considerable uncertainty about risks and benefits. 

Today's News and Commentary

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In other news:

Supreme Court upholds Affordable Care Act’s preventive care mandate: The Supreme Court on Friday upheld a portion of the Affordable Care Act that requires health plans to provide free preventive care such as screenings for cancer and HIV.
In a 6-3 decision, the justices ruled against a Christian-owned business and individuals who objected to being forced to offer medications intended to prevent the spread of HIV among people at risk. The plaintiffs contend the pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) treatment administered to prevent infections, “encourage and facilitate homosexual behavior” in conflict with their religious beliefs.

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices—Legal Roles, Challenges, and Guardrails An excellent review. For example: What stops the DHHS secretary from simply disbanding the ACIP and replacing its recommendations with his own? Typically, disbanding an agency-created advisory committee would be within the authority of that agency’s leadership. But a decision to dissolve the ACIP would be complicated by the fact that Congress has repeatedly and explicitly assigned it statutory roles. 

Republicans are dealt a setback on their big bill as Senate referee disqualifies key provisions: Senate parliamentarian Elizabeth MacDonough, who adjudicates procedural disputes between the two parties, has disqualified several provisions, including Medicaid rules prohibiting funds without verification of immigration status, reimbursement changes to contracts with pharmacy benefit managers (PBMs), provider tax restrictions aimed at saving federal dollars, and new limitations surrounding eligibility for Affordable Care Act funding.
The disqualified provisions total from $200 billion to $300 billion in savings over a decade, said Matthew Fiedler, an expert in health care policy and economics at the Brookings Institution.  

About health insurance/insurers

What 8 recent studies found about Medicare Advantage Great summary

Different Data Source, But Same Results: Most Adults Subject to Medicaid Work Requirements Are Working or Face Barriers to Work See Fig.1 for a summary.

Medicare Advantage Plan Disenrollment: Beneficiaries Cite Access, Cost, And Quality Among Reasons For Leaving: Enrollees’ self-reported inability to access and receive high-quality care, more than perceived burdens of out-of-pocket costs, was associated with MA plan disenrollment, as was an objective measure of plan generosity. Difficulty accessing needed medical care was more strongly associated with MA-to–traditional Medicare exits than MA-to-MA plan switching. Dissatisfaction with access, cost, and quality was much more common for enrollees in poor health. These findings renew concerns about access to high-quality care for high-risk and other MA enrollees. 

How Likely Are You to Have an Extended Long-Term Care Need?: Data on long-term-care usage suggests that the majority of people will need long-term care in their lifetimes. A research brief from the Department of Health and Human Services estimates that 56% of Americans turning 65 are likely to develop a condition requiring long-term care. Other studies have pegged the lifetime risk of needing long-term care as high as 70%.

About hospitals and healthcare systems

2025 Impact of Change Forecast From sG2: 2025 Impact of Change Forecast Key Takeaways
The 2025 Impact of Change Forecast provides 10-year projections for anticipated shifts in sites of care delivery across the nation, including:
 Outpatient (OP) care patient volumes projected to grow 18%
 Inpatient (IP) care patient discharges to grow 5%
 Pediatric OP volume growth forecasted at 8%
 Cancer OP volumes expected to grow 18%, while IP remains flat
 GLP-1s will contribute to slowing growth in IP discharges for type 2 diabetes patients to 8%
 Post-Acute Care to grow 31% 

About the public’s health

4 in 5 Americans support childhood vaccine requirements, poll finds: A poll released today shows that 79% of US adults support requiring children to be vaccinated against preventable infectious diseases like measles, mumps, and rubella to attend school, with even two thirds of Republicans and those who support the "Make America Great Again" (MAGA) movement agreeing with such measures.
The poll of 2,509 adults, conducted by the Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and the de Beaumont Foundation, also found that, among the 21% who don't support school vaccine mandates, their reasoning focused more on parental choice than on safety concerns.

Vaccine experts reject new RFK Jr.-backed federal panel, urge use of past guidance: The Infectious Disease Society of America is telling its members they should use the vaccination schedule recommended by the previous iteration of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's vaccine advisory council because the new federal advisory group's recommendations "can't be trusted," according to the group's president, a Northwestern Medicine immunization expert.
IDSA President Dr. Tina Tan said this afternoon she expects a coalition of health care groups including her organization, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the American Medical Association would soon provide further guidance, likely later on this summer, on what vaccines should be administered and at what doses. 

Today's News and Commentary

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In other news:

National Health Expenditure Projections, 2024–33: Despite Insurance Coverage Declines, Health To Grow As Share Of GDP: READ THE ENTIRE ARTICLE. Below is the abstract:
National health expenditures are projected to have grown 8.2 percent in 2024 and to increase 7.1 percent in 2025, reflecting continued strong growth in the use of health care services and goods. During the period 2026–27, health spending growth is expected to average 5.6 percent, partly because of a decrease in the share of the population with health insurance (related to the expiration of temporarily enhanced Marketplace premium tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022) and partly because of an anticipated slowdown in utilization growth from recent highs. Each year for the full 2024–33 projection period, national health care expenditure growth (averaging 5.8 percent) is expected to outpace that for the gross domestic product (GDP; averaging 4.3 percent) and to result in a health share of GDP that reaches 20.3 percent by 2033 (up from 17.6 percent in 2023).[Emphasis added]

Supreme Court allows states to cut off Medicaid funding for Planned Parenthood: A divided Supreme Court on Thursday ruled against Planned Parenthood, saying Medicaid patients do not have a right to sue to obtain non-abortion health care from the organization’s medical providers.
The decision allows South Carolina to cut off Medicaid funding for Planned Parenthood. It also has implications for patients in other states at a time when Republicans in Congress and the Trump administration are separately trying to defund even non-abortion health care offered by the nation’s largest abortion provider.

 RFK Jr. says U.S. will stop funding global vaccine alliance Gavi: The United States will halt its contributions to Gavi, the global alliance that works to expand access to vaccines for children in some of the world’s poorest countries, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said Wednesdaya move that public health experts said would have deadly consequences.

Healthcare’s broken math: 11 signs the numbers don’t add up A really good overview of some major issues. 

About health insurance/insurers

Delays and Denials in Medicare Advantage Fixing the Systemic Conflict of Interest An interesting proposal create a medical necessity review function for Medicare Administrative Contractors.

Healthcare billing fraud: 10 recent cases FYI

About hospitals and healthcare systems

How supply costs have grown at 20 health systems: On average, supply costs accounted for 13% of a hospitals’ expenses in 2024, according to the American Hospital Association’s annual “Cost of Caring” report released April 30. 
In 2024, total hospital expenses grew 5.1%, outpacing the overall inflation rate of 2.9% according to the report. 

About pharma

Déjà vu for Bristol Myers as it faces another anti-competition lawsuit over blockbuster Pomalyst The specific case is not as important as it includes examples of many different mechanisms companies have used to extend their patents.

Walgreens beats Wall Street expectations ahead of sale to Sycamore Partners: Walgreens Boots Alliance reported adjusted earnings per share of 38 cents for the third quarter of its 2025 fiscal year, which beat Zacks Investment Research's estimate of 34 cents per share. Zacks noted this was an 11.76% "earnings surprise" and said the company has, in the last four quarters, surpassed consensus earnings per share estimates four times. 

‘It’s heartbreaking’: Bad cancer drugs shipped to more than 100 countries: Vital chemotherapy drugs used around the world have failed quality tests, leaving cancer patients in more than 100 countries at risk of ineffective treatments and potentially fatal side effects, the Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ) can reveal.
The drugs in question form the backbone of treatment plans for numerous common cancers including breast, ovarian and leukemia. Some drugs contained so little of their key ingredient that pharmacists said giving them to patients would be as good as doing nothing. Other drugs, containing too much active ingredient, put patients at risk of severe organ damage or even death.

About the public’s health

Kennedy remake of CDC vaccine panel has US insurers reassessing sources of expertise: Health insurers are considering new expert sources to help determine which vaccines to pay for as anti-vaccine activist and now U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. begins to revise government recommendations for inoculations, according to multiple insurance industry insiders and experts.

CDC advisory panel, selected by RFK Jr., recommends thimerosal be dropped from flu vaccines The preservative is only in a couple versions of flu vaccine and limited to multi dose vials. This action was really a vanity project for RFK Jr since thimerosal is safe and was long ago eliminated from childhood vaccines. Amazing, from a scientific view, that the committee wasted time on this issue.

PFAS could be replaced with safe graphene oxide solution: Northwestern University researchers have developed a new water- and oil-resistant material that could become a safe, viable replacement for harmful plastics and toxic per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) in food packaging.
Derived from graphene oxide, the material is non-toxic, environmentally friendly and affordable. 

About healthcare IT

Optum launches AI marketplace: Optum has launched a new AI marketplace aimed at helping healthcare organizations more easily adopt AI tools.
The platform connects healthcare providers, payers and developers with curated AI products designed for clinical and administrative use, according to a June 25 news release from Optum. According to the company, the marketplace offers ready-to-use solutions and APIs that can be quickly integrated, helping organizations avoid the time and expense of building tools from scratch.The platform includes AI-powered products from Optum as well as other technology companies like ServiceNow, Microsoft and Google. 

Oversight Beyond the FDA: New Report Untangles the Complex Regulation of Health AI Tools: – A new report from the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) examines the complex and often fragmented regulatory landscape for health AI tools that fall outside the jurisdiction of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA).

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In other news:

NIH halts grant terminations ‘effective immediately,’ email says: Days after a federal judge ordered the restoration of more than 1,000 biomedical research grants, the National Institutes of Health is halting further terminations of grants, an internal email shows. 

Since President Trump’s inauguration in January, the nation’s largest biomedical research funder has terminated an unprecedented number of research grants. The email obtained by STAT does not state the reason for the decision, but it came a week after a federal judge in Boston ruled that some of the terminations were “void and illegal” — and just hours after the judge refused the administration’s request to pause his order. 

About health insurance/insurers
ACA marketplace enrollment could shrink by half : Marketplace enrollment could decline between 47% and 57% if premium tax credits expire and proposed changes in Congress become law, according to an analysis from Wakely, a healthcare market research firm .   

About pharma

BREAKING: CVS PBM Hit With $95M Judgment For Overbilling Medicare A Pennsylvania judicial decision.

About healthcare IT

Federal court says copyrighted books are fair use for AI training: A federal judge this week ruled that artificial intelligence company Anthropic did not break the law when it used copyrighted books to train its chatbot, Claude, without the consent of the texts’ authors or publishers — but he ordered the company to go to trial for allegedly using pirated versions of the books. 

About healthcare personnel

Gender Differences in Primary Care Physician Earnings and Outcomes Under Medicare Advantage Value-Based Payment: In this cohort study, women PCPs in value-based payment models had equal or better quality outcomes and higher value-based earnings compared to men in their practice groups. These results substantiate prior evidence that women physicians perform better on process and outcome measures, yet receive incommensurate patient ratings.The reversal of the gender gap under value-based payment is likely due to fewer emergency department visits and hospitalizations among women PCPs’ patients and may in turn reflect better alignment of value-based models to practice patterns more common in women (eg, more face-to-face time per visit). Equal pay could carry benefits beyond fair compensation, including reduced burnout and improved retention of the increasingly female primary care workforce to care for the aging US population. 

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About Covid-19

WHO TAG-VE Risk Evaluation for SARS-CoV-2 Variant Under Monitoring: NB.1.8.1: NB.1.8.1 has been designated a SARS-CoV-2 variant under monitoring (VUM) with increasing proportions globally, while LP.8.1 is starting to decline. Considering the available evidence, the additional public health risk posed by NB.1.8.1 is evaluated as low at the global level. Currently approved COVID-19 vaccines are expected to remain effective to this variant against symptomatic and severe disease. Despite a concurrent increase in cases and hospitalizations in some countries where NB.1.8.1 is widespread, current data do not indicate that this variant leads to more severe illness than other variants in circulation. 

About health insurance/insurers

Medicaid Work Requirements Have Mostly Failed. The GOP Is Still Pushing Them.:Trump’s tax-and-spending bill aims to require many Americans to work to collect Medicaid. Similar efforts in Georgia and Arkansas have largely fallen flat.